Tour de France --General individual classification: Step 19

A great race, outstanding feature. The Tour de France soars, this Saturday, for three weeks, hopefully panting. To live well and follow this 98 ^th edition of the Great Loop, Stéphane Goubert has agreed to Cyclism'Actu, to play the game of the "eye of the expert." At the heart of the Tour, as ambassador of the Carrefour, partner polka dot jersey of best climber in the Tour, but also, since this year, a consultant on Eurosport, "Gouby" former rider for 10 Tour de France in its career, we offer his analysis of the test. His first column, a complete deciphering what to expect on these three weeks. For Goubert, "Andy Schleck will win the Tour." Explanations.

Stephane Goubert, our expert, decrypts the Tour

Stage 1 - Passage du Gois - Mountains Alouettes (191.5 km)

"We'll have a nice first step input with the arrival on the Mont des Alouettes. Nevertheless, one should not expect to have differences. It is a beautiful finish for punchers who should agree perfectly, and return to Philippe Gilbert. The Belgian returns to the Tour after several years of stalemate. Several steps could suit him and win a few, beginning with the first. Gilbert's yellow jersey dream and it will, perhaps, his only opportunity to wear it. The next day, Sunday, there is the race against the team time trial and Omega Pharma to lose much time. Gilbert will be extremely motivated, this Saturday. We have seen since the beginning of the season, he was very strong. It has just been crowned champion of Belgium and, honestly, I do not see how it could escape. Be careful though, there are other punchers on the Tour who have their word to say. Even a sprinter like Thor Hushovd, can play his card. The final is not so steep and it may well compete with Thor a Philippe Gilbert. Norwegian wins every year, his step. We must not forget that he has the shirt rainbow sky on his shoulders and leaves a good Tour de Suisse. Hushovd will therefore want to do this shining world champion's jersey on the road. Recall, also, that the Tour de France is the most beautiful and toughest race in the world. Not, by his journey that is less difficult than the Giro, but by its board and the fitness of the riders. The first day, there will be no surprise. All teams are well organized. All riders are fresh. I do not see how one could catch the breakaway pack. We must know, the early stages of the Tour are always very nervous and often lead to falls can be quite severe. It even happens that get trapped favorites. This will require leaders to be very vigilant. "

Team time trial - The Essarts - The Essarts (23 km)

"The race against the team time trial is the first big event of the 2011 Tour. Leopard-Trek should start from that lap, threatening Contador, trying to take her time wherever they have the opportunity. We all saw how Alberto Contador dominated the Giro. It will not take that Leopard Trek misses this step and this team time. This is a first opportunity to take time to Spanish. So if want Schleck win the Tour, they will seize this opportunity. It will, moreover, the first key to this Tour de France. Leopard-Trek will happen to her to take time to Saxo Bank? And if so, how many seconds or even minutes? The Luxembourg team will do everything to win this lap and take, so, automatically time to Alberto Contador. We must not forget that this race against the team time trial is short, with only 23 kilometers. He will consecrate a really big team wheeler.

So we'll have to go very fast. And in this game there must be also careful to HTC and Garmin-Cervélo. These are real teams of specialists chrono. As for Rabobank, we do not often quote for this step, but they have good riders. I see the Rabobank achieve a good performance. Most importantly, do not bury too fast Saxo Bank. It may well create the surprise. One thing is certain, this step will determine many things. It will, also, important for the further conduct of the first week. It will be very interesting to watch and scrutinize the overall standings on Sunday night. "

The first week

"The first stages of the Tour are not simple. Escapements have good shots to play. Moreover, we will soon arrive in the mountains, with the Massif Central. So if it's a leader who has the yellow jersey Sunday, he will surely not want to keep. There will be real opportunities for fighters to distinguish themselves from the first week that smiles, in general, and often, with sprinters.

On the sprints, it promises a good battle. There are beautiful people there too. We saw the Giro. Mark Cavendish has trouble on the first sprint. It's hard to train and guide her to find its footing in the sprint. But once he wins, this is the trigger for him and it's very hard to stop. His opponents will always be on top in the early days. The names and favorite sprints, there is always the same. Unsurprisingly, there Alessandro Petacchi, who won two last year. Andre Greipel involved, he, in his first Tour de France and will be a customer for Cavendish sacred, just as Farrar. The others, I see a little below. But, on the tour and especially in the sprints, anything is possible. But once the HTC is properly adjusted, and Cavendish is confident, they are almost unbeatable. For three years, nobody has really managed to cut them success in their tracks. "

The Massif Central with Super-Besse Sancy

"The Massif Central is, this year, the first mountains of the Tour. However, we should not expect a big fight between leaders. The Tour is long and hard stages in the Massif Central does not offer a field sufficiently demanding to see attacks. It will truly be an ideal for backpackers. The stage is reminiscent of Saint-Flour which saw the victory of Virenque in 2004. It was imposed solitary and had taken the yellow jersey. I see the same scenario. The two steps are favorable to our French. They then land that suits them very well. I think of David Moncoutie, Thomas Voeckler or our new champion of France, Sylvain Chavanel. As for Contador, that leaves a very demanding Giro, although I think he has recovered well, they'll want to up household. The third week is difficult. I think he would be delighted that the yellow jersey in leading a team who will take the weight of the race to defend it in the first two weeks. I do not see it as the Giro, banging his fist on the table in the early stages. I remember that Contador had let the jersey Nocentini in 2009, my leader, at the time, with AG2R, before continuing at the end of Tour. "

The Pyrenees with Luz-Ardiden and Plateau de Beille

"This is where the real fun begins. Ah, the Pyrenees. I'm not saying that before the race was irrelevant but with Luz-Ardiden and Plateau de Beille, we attack two roofs of the Tour de France. Besides, the Plateau de Beille is harder than Luz-Ardiden. The ^14th step is for me the most beautiful in the Pyrenees and that brings back good memories. If it's hot that day, the riders will have a hard time breathing in the last climb. You can really create beautiful variations on arrival. Especially since the next day, the Pyrenees will be finished. In the Pyrenees, we can no longer hide. Winning at Plateau de Beille is a prestigious victory, and above all is to be remembered for his opponents. Even if this year is that the Alps are in the spotlight. But let's not forget the Pyrenees are demanding and there are ways to easily take 20 to 30 seconds in steps. "

The Alps and the 100 years of Galibier

"The Alps are very difficult, besides being placed in the third week. Indeed, this may surprise, but to me, step to create the most favorable variations is that of Alpe d'Huez. The stage is very short, 109 km. And if the fire input, it can really hurt. We will then end of the Tour. Organizations will be well underway and some runners are long on startup. They need a hundred kilometers to start to get better and find a good feeling. There, after 100 kilometers, it will already be in the climb to Alpe d'Huez! Dangerous if riders attacked on the first pass, you may be surprised, failure, and therefore differences. Teams will set an aggressive strategy to start of this stage. "

The last lap - Grenoble - Grenoble (42.5 miles)

"The penultimate day, we find the traditional" famous "-against the individual time trial. This is certainly the same lap at Dauphine. But apart from the course, nothing compares. The Dauphiné, there were also differences of beautiful but it is not said that the same is true here. It can, of course, change the general if the differences are small. But, given its difficulty and is placed at the end of the Tour, it will not disadvantage the climbers that much. In the end Tour is the freshness that prevails and there are often at the forefront of the first overall. To be really sure Paris rally in yellow, should Andy Schleck is 2 minutes behind Contador. But we must remember, also, that last year in the last lap, it rivaled long, with the yellow jersey on his back. It can therefore achieve a feat with only 30 seconds ahead at the start of the stage. Anyway, for Schleck, it will not be against this, the individual time trial the hardest step. It will be much earlier. Because it will take for them to conquer the yellow jersey. And for this it will have to be their best Alberto Contador. There are many mountains and only one individual time trial, the differences are therefore likely to be consistent at the start of the penultimate stage of the Tour. And this may ultimately not change much. This is, clearly, a Tour for climbers. "

Can you beat Alberto Contador?

"I think the only one capable of beating Alberto Contador is Andy Schleck. It is fresh. We did not see much this year, unlike Contador. We saw last year, it was almost level with the Spaniard and he could beat him. This has not played much. No matter how long it will take Andy Schleck attacked. He must attack Contador far and not wait until the last kilometer as it did last year, in Morzine. Andy on the 2010 Tour has also lost rapidly Frank, his brother, which is an important ally for him physically and mentally. If his brother, Frank, was at his side throughout the race, we can see a totally different scenario. I think Andy Schleck has the means to impose. Its preparation should probably be optimal since it is the Tour, certainly more than Contador.

Now is it that will do enough to beat Contador? It is not clear. It is said that Leopard-Trek has the best team on the Tour. I feel really good the Saxo-Bank. Runners-Saxo Bank had made a great job on the sacred Giro. And, for me, they will, no doubt, even stronger on the Tour. "

The French in contention

"The French have, also, good shots to play in the overall standings. At Ag2r, Jean-Christophe Peraud was very well prepared. I know it and I tell you. Although this will be his first Tour, Péraud can hope to return to Paris in 10. It was full of riders who can be placed in general: Jerome Coppel, Sylvain Chavanel and David Moncoutie. It is a pity that Blel Kadri was injured at the Dauphiné. Without that, I'm sure he would have been the revelation of this Tour de France. Many wonder what state will be John Gadret. Has he recovered from his fourth place in the Giro? I think it will be in good condition. John is not going to start it does not feel capable of doing something. It will not work but the general, rather, for its leaders. But if Gadret will have the opportunity to shine on some steps and why not win one, the Plateau de Beille, for example! "

Predictions

"For me, Alberto and Andy stand out quite clearly. In third place on the podium, I would Cadel Evans. Everyone cites winner Alberto Contador. So, for the suspense, I'll take a risk by saying that Andy Schleck will be the winner of this Tour. He will have his team and himself are very offensive.

For the green jersey, I would give winner Philippe Gilbert. I like to take risks because even on a medium mountain stage, it can take points. After, I do not know if its goal is three weeks or if they focus exclusively on the first week, before starting the service team.

For the polka dot jersey of best climber, I could see Sylvain Chavanel. But there, with his blue jersey, white and red, it will be a bit more complicated. I will tell Thomas Voeckler.

For the jersey of best young rider, I see Gesink. But beware of the very young Van Garderen that may surprise many people.

Given the quality of the actual Leopard-Trek, I think it will be hard to stop them from winning the team classification.

To review the four key points of the Tour de France will be: against the clock in shifts, arrival at the Plateau de Beille, Alpe D'Huez and the individual time trial from Grenoble. It promises us a nice tour, no! See you soon then. "

 

Position	No bib	Name	Country	Team	Schedule	Deviation
A	101	Bradley Wiggins		SKY	84h26'31''	00''
2	105	Christopher Froome		SKY	84h29'52''	3'21''
3	051	Vincenzo Nibali		LIQ	84h32'50''	6'19''
4	111	Jurgen van den Broeck		LTB	84h36'46''	10'15''
5	009	Tejay Van Garderen		BMC	84h37'35''	11'04''
6	019	Haimar ZUBELDIA		RNT	84h42'14''	15'43''
7	001	Cadel Evans		BMC	84h42'22''	15'51''
8	029	Pierre ROLLAND		EUC	84h43'02''	16'31''
9	181	Janez BRAJKOVIC		AST	84h43'09''	16'38''
10	146	Thibaut Pinot		FDJ	84h43'48''	17'17''
11	015	Andreas Klöden		RNT	84h44'25''	17'54''
12	079	Nicolas ROCHE		ALM	84h46'04''	19'33''
13	014	Christopher Horner		RNT	84h46'26''	19'55''
14	178	Chris Anker Sorensen		STB	84h51'58''	25'27''
15	131	Denis MENCHOV		KAT	84h53'53''	27'22''
16	016	Maxime Monfort		RNT	84h55'01''	28'30''
17	035	Egoi Martinez		EUS	84h58'17''	31'46''
18	163	Rui Alberto COSTA		MOV	85h03'34''	37'03''
19	139	Eduard Vorganov		KAT	85h04'47''	38'16''
20	161	Alejandro Valverde		MOV	85h08'57''	42'26''
21	091	Jerome COPPEL		UAA	85h12'14''	45'43''
22	141	Sandy CASAR		FDJ	85h13'23''	46'52''
23	108	Michael Rogers		SKY	85h21'23''	54'52''
24	041	Michele SCARPONI		LAM	85h25'08''	58'37''
25	052	Ivan Basso		LIQ	85h26'15''	59'44''
26	021	Thomas VOECKLER		EUC	85h31'12''	1h04'41''
27	199	Peter Velits		OPQ	85h31'41''	1h05'10''
28	157	Laurens Ten Dam		RAB	85h32'10''	1h05'39''
29	119	Jelle VANENDERT		LTB	85h33'04''	1h06'33''
30	162	Juan Jose COBO ACEBO		MOV	85h35'50''	1h09'19''
31	189	Alexander VINOKOUROV		AST	85h41'04''	1h14'33''
32	191	Levi Leipheimer		OPQ	85h43'00''	1h16'29''
33	152	Steven Kruijswijk		RAB	85h43'23''	1h16'52''
34	107	Richie DOOR		SKY	85h47'20''	1h20'49''
35	065	Daniel MARTIN		GRS	85h51'54''	1h25'23''
36	081	Rein Taaramae		COF	85h54'07''	1h27'36''
37	132	Gianpaolo Caruso		KAT	85h55'03''	1h28'32''
38	005	George HINCAPIE		BMC	85h57'09''	1h30'38''
39	034	Gorka IZAGUIRRE Insausti		EUS	85h58'15''	1h31'44''
40	187	Fredrik KESSIAKOFF		AST	86h01'04''	1h34'33''
41	128	Rafael Valls Ferri		VCD	86h04'12''	1h37'41''
42	184	Andriy Grivko		AST	86h05'12''	1h38'41''
43	057	Peter Sagan		LIQ	86h05'17''	1h38'46''
44	071	Jean-Christophe Peraud		ALM	86h07'15''	1h40'44''
45	006	Amaël MOINARD		BMC	86h07'31''	1h41'00''
46	004	Philippe GILBERT		BMC	86h08'11''	1h41'40''
47	055	Dominik Nerz		LIQ	86h08'43''	1h42'12''
48	142	Pierrick FEDRIGO		FDJ	86h09'10''	1h42'39''
49	008	Michael SCHÄR		BMC	86h10'26''	1h43'55''
50	177	Sergio Miguel Moreira PAULINHO		STB	86h13'45''	1h47'14''
51	138	Yury TROFIMOV		KAT	86h14'02''	1h47'31''
52	018	Jens Voigt		RNT	86h17'12''	1h50'41''
53	166	Vladimir KARPETS		MOV	86h18'14''	1h51'43''
54	095	Fabrice Jeandesboz		UAA	86h18'59''	1h52'28''
55	072	Maxime Bouet		ALM	86h19'01''	1h52'30''
56	102	Edvald Boasson Hagen		SKY	86h19'14''	1h52'43''
57	123	Johnny Hoogerland		VCD	86h22'01''	1h55'30''
58	028	Davide Malacarne		EUC	86h23'41''	1h57'10''
59	002	Marcus Burghardt		BMC	86h24'10''	1h57'39''
60	068	Christian Vande Velde		GRS	86h25'11''	1h58'40''
61	024	Cyril GAUTIER		EUC	86h25'26''	1h58'55''
62	073	Mikael CHEREL		ALM	86h26'24''	1h59'53''
63	183	Dmitriy FOFONOV		AST	86h30'26''	2h03'55''
64	155	Luis-Leon Sanchez		RAB	86h31'39''	2h05'08''
65	077	Sebastien MINARD		ALM	86h32'40''	2h06'09''
66	148	Jeremy ROY		FDJ	86h36'13''	2h09'42''
67	125	Marco MARCATO		VCD	86h38'12''	2h11'41''
68	194	Dries Devenyns		OPQ	86h38'53''	2h12'22''
69	048	Simone Stortoni		LAM	86h39'30''	2h12'59''
70	193	DE Kevin WEERT		OPQ	86h40'20''	2h13'49''
71	058	Sylvester Szmyd		LIQ	86h42'30''	2h15'59''
72	209	Pieter Weening		OGE	86h44'01''	2h17'30''
73	078	Christophe Riblon		ALM	86h44'02''	2h17'31''
74	033	Jorge Azanza Soto		EUS	86h45'29''	2h18'58''
75	097	William LEVARLET		UAA	86h46'14''	2h19'43''
76	017	Yaroslav Popovych		RNT	86h48'11''	2h21'40''
77	167	Vasili Kiryienka		MOV	86h48'38''	2h22'07''
78	186	Andrey KASHECHKIN		AST	86h49'45''	2h23'14''
79	046	Marco Marzano		LAM	86h50'29''	2h23'58''
80	201	Simon Gerrans		OGE	86h51'06''	2h24'35''
81	115	Adam Hansen		LTB	86h51'25''	2h24'54''
82	027	Christophe Kern		EUC	86h52'28''	2h25'57''
83	106	Christian KNEES		SKY	86h52'45''	2h26'14''
84	022	Yukiya Arashiro		EUC	86h55'44''	2h29'13''
85	144	Matthew LADAGNOUS		FDJ	86h59'45''	2h33'14''
86	043	Danilo Hondo		LAM	87h04'26''	2h37'55''
87	036	Ruben Perez Moreno		EUS	87h04'32''	2h38'01''
88	094	Brice FEILLU		UAA	87h05'45''	2h39'14''
89	076	Blel Kadri		ALM	87h07'10''	2h40'39''
90	198	Martin Velits		OPQ	87h07'18''	2h40'47''
91	089	Roman Zingle		COF	87h07'40''	2h41'09''
92	175	Michael Morkov		STB	87h12'10''	2h45'39''
93	099	Julien SIMON		UAA	87h12'40''	2h46'09''
94	003	Stephen Cummings		BMC	87h12'59''	2h46'28''
95	149	Arthur Vichot		FDJ	87h13'22''	2h46'51''
96	112	Lars BAK		LTB	87h14'01''	2h47'30''
97	208	Stuart Ogrady		OGE	87h16'14''	2h49'43''
98	054	Kristijan KOREN		LIQ	87h17'49''	2h51'18''
99	179	Nicki Sorensen		STB	87h19'07''	2h52'36''
100	069	David ZABRISKIE		GRS	87h19'09''	2h52'38''
101	113	Francis De Greef		LTB	87h19'48''	2h53'17''
102	168	Ruben PLAZA MOLINA		MOV	87h20'06''	2h53'35''
103	213	Koen de Kort		ARG	87h20'53''	2h54'22''
104	066	David Millar		GRS	87h21'26''	2h54'55''
105	056	Daniel OSS		LIQ	87h21'35''	2h55'04''
106	117	Jurgen Roelandts		LTB	87h21'35''	2h55'04''
107	083	Samuel Dumoulin		COF	87h22'38''	2h56'07''
108	007	Manual QUINZIATO		BMC	87h22'58''	2h56'27''
109	137	Luca Paolini		KAT	87h23'01''	2h56'30''
110	202	Michael ALBASINI		OGE	87h23'31''	2h57'00''
111	205	Daryl Impey		OGE	87h24'00''	2h57'29''
112	217	Matthew SPRICK		ARG	87h24'11''	2h57'40''
113	197	Jerome Pineau		OPQ	87h24'29''	2h57'58''
114	053	Federico Canuti		LIQ	87h24'43''	2h58'12''
115	122	Kris Boeckmans		VCD	87h29'37''	3h03'06''
116	185	Maxim IGLINSKIY		AST	87h30'14''	3h03'43''
117	203	Baden Cooke		OGE	87h30'45''	3h04'14''
118	059	Alessandro VANOTTI		LIQ	87h30'54''	3h04'23''
119	135	Joan Horrach		KAT	87h32'29''	3h05'58''
120	204	Matthew Harley Goss		OGE	87h33'35''	3h07'04''
121	176	Nick NUYENS		STB	87h34'25''	3h07'54''
122	075	Sebastien HINAULT		ALM	87h35'37''	3h09'06''
123	114	Andre GREIPEL		LTB	87h35'42''	3h09'11''
124	195	Bert Grabsch		OPQ	87h39'37''	3h13'06''
125	116	Gregory Henderson		LTB	87h39'46''	3h13'15''
126	147	Anthony Roux		FDJ	87h41'54''	3h15'23''
127	084	Nicolas EDET		COF	87h43'12''	3h16'41''
128	098	Jean Marc MARINO		UAA	87h43'36''	3h17'05''
129	174	Anders Lund		STB	87h43'38''	3h17'07''
130	182	Borut BOZIC		AST	87h44'24''	3h17'53''
131	087	Luis Angel MATE MARDONES		COF	87h44'42''	3h18'11''
132	118	Marcel Sieberg		LTB	87h46'09''	3h19'38''
133	145	Cedric Pineau		FDJ	87h46'55''	3h20'24''
134	038	Pablo Perez URTASUN		EUS	87h48'05''	3h21'34''
135	212	Roy Curvers		ARG	87h50'15''	3h23'44''
136	096	Cyril LEMOINE		UAA	87h50'26''	3h23'55''
137	171	Jonathan CANTWELL		STB	87h51'44''	3h25'13''
138	216	Yann Huguet		ARG	87h52'26''	3h25'55''
139	025	Yohann Gene		EUC	87h53'38''	3h27'07''
140	215	Patrick GRETSCH		ARG	87h53'45''	3h27'14''
141	172	Juan Jose Haedo		STB	87h54'08''	3h27'37''
142	173	Karsten KROON		STB	87h54'39''	3h28'08''
143	103	Mark CAVENDISH		SKY	87h55'16''	3h28'45''
144	156	Bram Tankink		RAB	87h57'20''	3h30'49''
145	104	Bernhard Eisel		SKY	88h03'26''	3h36'55''
146	136	Aliaksandr Kuchynski		KAT	88h04'20''	3h37'49''
147	067	Johan Van Summeren		GRS	88h06'32''	3h40'01''
148	218	Albert Timmer		ARG	88h06'39''	3h40'08''
149	085	Julien Fouchard		COF	88h09'02''	3h42'31''
150	207	Sebastian LANGEVELD		OGE	88h15'55''	3h49'24''
151	063	Tyler Farrar		GRS	88h21'25''	3h54'54''
152	086	January Ghyselinck		COF	88h23'35''	3h57'04''
153	093	Jimmy Engoulvent		UAA	88h24'16''	3h57'45''